stock market in spanish flu

The negative stock-market impact of the Spanish Flu was fairly modest even over time spans of several months. Davis Kyle Kost Marco Sammon and Tasaneeya Viratyosin 30 March 2020 Last Edited on 16 June 2020 Abstract.

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2 Barro et al.

. Bespoke Investment Group recently posted this chart of the stock market during the Spanish flu from 1918-1919 in which an. Bryan Taylor President and Cheif Economist for Global Financial Data speaks with Mountain Money about the impacts the Spanish Flu had on the stock market in 1918 and how we can look at that data to understand the current market and impacts from COVID-19. Many zeroed in on the 1918-20 Spanish flu pandemic.

However several factors put Covid-19 on its own scary page in history. Spanish Flu and the Stock Market - How Can We Use the Data Today. We study the effect of the flu on stock markets by examining weekly trad-ing data compiled from high-frequency NYSE trade and quote TAQ data from 1998 to 20067 In order to assess the flus relation to stock markets we focus on NYSE trading of NYSE listed stocks.

Specifically we find that the Spanish flu can explain 24 percent of the forecast error 1 In the Appendix we plot the association between sectoral stock market indices and death rate. If the COVID-19 pandemic is anything like the Spanish Flu the worst stock market losses may be behind us. Many have compared the current coronavirus to the so-called Spanish flu in which millions of people diedLo noted however that the economic effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic were relatively short term with industries reporting mixed results.

28 2009 11. However the impact of the Spanish Flu on the stock market was minimal. Less than a year after the mortality rate from the Spanish flu dropped down to zero the US economy actually went into a year and a.

2009 Flu Pandemic Chart. Perhaps what happened in the stock market 100 years ago can offer clues. At that time the US.

The 1918 flu infected around 500 million people in four waves between February 1918 to April 1920 resulting in tens of millions of deaths. No previous infectious disease outbreak including the Spanish Flu has impacted the stock market as forcefully as the COVID-19 pandemic. 1918 Spanish Flu and the Market.

Using Dow Jones data he observed that the market fell 33 in the first months of the pandemic and had bounced 35 off the bottom by October 1918 the deadliest. The empirical analysis demonstrates that the Spanish flu had a large impact on the stock market. Baker Nicholas Bloom Steven J.

The 2009-10 flu pandemic or Swine Flu began March 17 2009 in Mexico. And so it. No previous infectious disease outbreak including the Spanish Flu has impacted the stock market as powerfully as the COVID-19 pandemic.

The 1918 Spanish Flu was a global flu pandemic that affected nearly half of the worlds population at the time or up to one billion people. The Spanish Flus impact on the stock market was small. The stock markets decline began before the recession and before the public became aware of the flu problem.

What followed was a decade characterized by economic and. On the surface it bore many similarities to the Covid-19 emergency involving a lethal virus with fast-spreading global contagion. Looking back at 1918 the economy took years to recover while employment moved back to previous levels and the stock market soared.

Stock markets all over the globe actually boomed during the Spanish flu because the economy remained open and uninhibited. Using only NYSE data avoids a number. The market returned after the 1918 flu pandemic.

But even the worst-case scenarios for this crisis predict only a fraction of the mortalities from the Spanish flu. So while the worst was ahead in terms of the Spanish Flu in December of 1917 the worst was done for the stock market after the 33 drop Hayes wrote. When Covid-19 hit investors tried to find lessons in the Spanish flu pandemic as a way to predict how the markets would fare.

Although the US was at war and the flu continued to spread around the world the DJIA increased by a whopping 22 from May 1918 to October 1919. Global supply chains were almost nonexistent since WWI disrupted the majority of them. As World War I claimed thousands of.

However at the end of the Spanish Flu in February of 1919 the market increased by 50. Thats according to Great Hill Capitals Thomas Hayes who weighed in on his blog last month. Hence explanations that stress greater information availability and more rapid diffusion of that information do not take us very far in rationalizing the huge stock-market drop since February 24.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was mostly unchanged throughout the infections course. We use text-based methods to develop this point with respect to large daily stock market moves back to 1900 and with respect to overall stock market volatility back to 1985. Investors who were early to enter the markets were lucky enough to lock in profits just when the pandemic was about to get over.

When it comes to the stock market theres always something. And the disruption to the economy back then was arguably worse than it is today. 2020 examine the impact of the Spanish flu on economic activity in a cross-section of.

The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19 Scott R.

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